https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts
Anthropic’s recent labour-market analysis found that Computer Programmers show one of the highest levels of AI exposure, with a large share of their work linked to tasks such as writing, updating, and maintaining software programs. Many will read this and conclude that programming jobs will disappear. I think that conclusion is too simplistic.
My view is that programming work is not disappearing. It is instead being restructured.
In the past, if a business unit needed a system, a dashboard, an automation flow, or an internal tool, they often had to go through an IT department or an external vendor. Today, AI is changing that work model. Some types of software can now be created much more directly by business units, business analysts, operations teams, or domain experts who understand the workflow well and know how to work with AI tools.
That does not make programming irrelevant. In fact, it raises the bar for computer programmers.
The value of the programmer is shifting away from simply writing code line by line. The modern programmer must increasingly define the problem clearly, design the solution architecture, guide the AI to generate usable code, validate outputs, test edge cases, ensure maintainability, and produce reliable documentation. In other words, coding knowledge still matters, but it is no longer enough on its own.
This is why I believe the real risk is not that all programmers will be replaced. The real risk is that programmers who remain only code writers will become vulnerable. As AI takes over more routine implementation work, companies will place a higher premium on those who can combine programming knowledge, systems thinking, business understanding, judgment, and accountability.
AI may simplify parts of software development, even as it makes the role of the programmer more demanding. Less effort may be spent on actually writing code, but more will be expected in solution design, decision-making, integration, quality control, and overall speed of execution.
The future programmer is not just a coder. The future programmer is an AI-enabled solution builder.
